Quick note: Subscribers to the newsletter already know, but for those who aren’t subscribed; I broke the fibula in my right leg on Tuesday so I wasn’t able to go into detail on the reasoning behind my fighter selections. Rest assured the same research went into this card as all the other cards in the past.
Also, as of this writing I don’t have any bets finalized for the weekend, but I will have plays. So, keep an eye on Twitter @michaelgrocke for all the bets I’m making in each of the other sports.
Good luck and may all your bets be winners!
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The UFC travels overseas to the Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil for UFC Fight Night 164. The main event takes place in the light heavyweight division where Jan Blachowicz takes on Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. In the co-main we stay in the light heavyweight division where Mauricio “Shogun” Rua faces off against Paul Craig.
Also, on the main card Charles Oliveira takes on Jared Gordon, Antonio Arroyo faces off against Andre Muniz and Markus Perez vs. Wellington Turman.
The prelims will stream on ESPN+ beginning at 12:00 PM (CST) with the main card starting at 3:00 PM (CST) also on ESPN+.
Note: The predictions in this column do not necessarily mean that I will be betting them. I have changed my mind in the past and gone the other way after conducting more research. For all my official bets follow me on Twitter @MichaelGrocke.
Main Card
Jan Blachowicz (24-8) vs. Ronaldo Souza (26-7, 1 NC) – Light Heavyweight 205 lbs.
Current Odds: Blachowicz -180; Souza +150
Jan Blachowicz was on a four-fight win streak until getting finished by Thiago Santos at UFC Fight Night 145. He bounced back in his most recent fight with a victory over Luke Rockhold at UFC 239. Of the polish born fighter’s twenty-four career wins, fifteen ended inside the distance. Six via knockout to go along with nine by way of submission. At thirty-six-years-of age, Blachowicz will make the walk for the thirty-third time when he steps into the octagon opposite Souza on Saturday.
Ronaldo Souza is 2-3 over his last five fights. He lost his most recent fight to Jack Hermansson via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 150. The Brazilian born fighter has finished twenty-two of his twenty-six career victories. Eight by knockout and fourteen via submission. He’s been finished three times, all via knockout in his seven losses. The thirty-nine-year-old will make the walk for the thirty-fifth time.
My official pick: Blachowicz by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Mauricio Rua (26-11) vs. Paul Craig (12-4) – Light Heavyweight 205 lbs.
Current Odds: Rua -285; Craig +225
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was on a three-fight win streak until he lost to Anthony Smith via first round knockout at UFC Fight Night 134. He bounced back with a win in his most recent fight over Tyson Pedro at UFC Fight Night 142. The former UFC light heavyweight champion will step into the cage for the thirty-seventh time and the twentieth time for the UFC. Of the Brazilian born fighter’s twenty-six career victories, twenty-two ended inside the distance. All but one via knockout. The thirty-seven-year-old has been finished in eight of his eleven losses.
Paul Craig is 3-2 in his previous five bouts. His most recent fight was at UFC Fight Night 159 where he subbed Vinicius Moreira Castro in the first round. The Scottish born fighter finished all twelve of his career wins. Eleven are by way of submission. Craig has also been finished in all four of his losses. The thirty-one-year-old has yet to go to the judge’s scorecards in sixteen pro fights.
My official pick: Craig by decision.
From a betting perspective: I played Paul Craig at +215 on Thursday, 11/14.
Charles Oliveira (27-8, 1 NC) vs. Jared Gordon (15-3) – Lightweight 155 lbs.
Current Odds: Oliveira -465; Gordon +345
After losing to Paul Felder via TKO at UFC 218, Charles Oliveira has won his last five fights in a row. His most recent victory occurred at UFC Fight Night 152 where he stopped Nik Lentz in the second round due to punches. The Brazilian born fighter has finished all but two of his twenty-seven pro victories. Seven via knockout and eighteen by submission. In Oliveira’s eight losses, he was finished seven times. The thirty-year-old will make the walk for thirty-seventh time when faces off against Gordon.
Jared Gordon is 1-2 over his last three. After losing two in a row, Gordon got himself back in the win column most recently by defeating Dan Moret via unanimous decision. The Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu product has eight finishes in fifteen career victories. Gordon has been knocked out in all three of his losses. This will be the thirty-one-year-old’s nineteenth professional bout.
My official pick: Oliveira by submission.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Antonio Arroyo (9-2) vs. Andre Muniz (18-4) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
Current Odds: Muniz -125; Arroyo -105
Brazilian born Andre Muniz enters his fight against Antonio Arroyo looking for his fifth straight win. His most recent victory occurred at Dana White’s Contender Series where he submitted Taylor Johnson in the first round. Prior to that win he defeated Bruno Assis at Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series Brazil. Now, the twenty-nine-year-old gets his chance under the bright lights when he takes on Antonio Arroyo. Sixteen of Muniz’s eighteen pro wins ended inside the distance. Four via knockout and twelve by submission. This will be his twenty-third pro bout.
Antonio Arroyo comes into this fight on a five-fight win streak. His most recent victory came at Dana White’s Contender Series where he defeated Stephen Regman via submission. Before that win he beat Diego Henrique da Silva at Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series Brazil. And, like Muniz, Arroyo will get his big opportunity in the UFC when he steps into the octagon to take on Muniz. Eight of Arroyo’s nine pro wins ended inside the distance. Four are via knockout and four are by way of submission. This will be the Brazilian’s twelfth professional fight.
My official pick: Muniz by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Markus Perez (12-2) vs. Wellington Turman (15-3) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
Current Odds: Perez -120; Turman -110
Markus Perez is 2-2 over his previous four fights. His most recent fight was at UFC Fight Night 144 where he defeated Anthony Hernandez via submission. Nine of the Brazilian born fighter’s twelve pro victories ended inside the distance. Three by knockout and six via submission. This will be the twenty-nine-year-old’s fifteenth pro bout.
Wellington Turman was on a four-fight win streak when he got the opportunity to make his UFC debut against Karl Roberson at UFC Fight Night 155. Turman lost his promotional debut to Roberson via split decision making this a must-win fight for him. The last thing Turman wants is to go 0-2 in the UFC. Eleven of the Brazilian born fighter’s fifteen career wins ended inside the distance. Four are via knockout and seven are by way of submission. At twenty-three-years-of-age, Turman will make the walk for the nineteenth time.
My official pick: Perez by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Prelims
Sergio Moraes (14-5-1) vs. James Krause (26-7) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Krause -210; Moraes +170
My officialpick: Krause by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Ricardo Ramos (13-2) vs. Eduardo Garagorri (13-0) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Current Odds: Ramos -415; Garagorri +315
My official pick: Ramos by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Francisco Trinaldo (23-7) vs. Bobby Green (24-9-1) – Lightweight 155 lbs.
Current Odds: Trinaldo -140; Green +110
My official pick: Trinaldo by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Warlley Alves (13-3) vs. Randy Brown (11-3) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Alves -130; Brown +100
My officialpick: Brown by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Douglas Silva de Andrade (25-3, 1 NC) vs. Renan Barao (34-8, 1 NC) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Current Odds: Andrade -255; Barao +200
My official pick: Andrade by submission.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Ariane Lipski (11-5) vs. Isabella de Padua (5-1) – Flyweight 125 lbs.
Current Odds: N/A
My official pick: Lipski by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Vanessa Melo (10-6) vs. Tracy Cortez (6-1) – Bantamweight 135 lbs.
Current Odds: Cortez -210; Melo +170
My official pick: Cortez by decision.
From a betting perspective: I played Vanessa Melo at +160 on Thursday, 11/14.
Enjoy the fights!