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The UFC travels overseas to the CSKA Arena in Moscow, Russia for UFC Fight Night 163. The main event takes place in the featherweight division where Zabit Magomedsharipov takes on Calvin Kattar. The co-main takes place in the heavyweight division where Alexander Volkov faces off against Greg Hardy.
Also, on the main card Zelim Imadaev takes on Danny Roberts, Gadzhimurad Antigulov faces off against Ed Herman, Ramazan Emeev vs. Anthony Rocco Martin and Shamil Gamzatov vs. Klidson Abreu.
The prelims will stream on ESPN+ beginning at 10:00 AM (CST) with the main card starting at 1:00 PM (CST) also on ESPN+.
Note: The predictions in this column do not necessarily mean that I will be betting them. I have changed my mind in the past and gone the other way after conducting more research. For all my official bets follow me on Twitter @MichaelGrocke.
Main Card
Zabit Magomedsharipov (17-1) vs. Calvin Kattar (20-3) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Current Odds: Magomedsharipov -300; Kattar +240
Zabit Magomedsharipov hasn’t lost a pro fight since April of 2013. He’s a thirteen-fight win streak and is 5-0 under the UFC banner. His most recent victory was at UFC 235 where he defeated Jeremy Stephens via unanimous decision. Thirteen of the Russian born fighter’s seventeen career wins ended inside the distance. Six via knockout and seven by way of submission. The twenty-seven-year-old will make the walk for the nineteenth time.
After losing to Renato Carneiro via unanimous decision at UFC 223, Calvin Kattar has rattled off two straight victories. He beat Chris Fishgold at UFC Fight Night 138 and most recently he defeated Ricardo Lamas at UFC 238. Both wins were via first round knockouts. Twelve of the American born fighters’ victories ended inside the distance. Nine via knockout and three by submission. At thirty-one-years-old Kattar will make the walk for the twenty-fourth time.
Zabit is long and uses his length well to keep range. He utilizes his kicks from the outside and fights well off his back foot. He has good striking defense and out-volumes his opponents. He has insane wrestling and a dangerous submission game. Zabit is as well-rounded as a fighter can be. I worry about Zabit’s cardio. This fight being five rounds is a huge benefit for him.
Kattar has excellent boxing and can knock out anyone in the division; however, he is hittable which is a concern in this fight. While he doesn’t have the best striking defense, he has an excellent chin and is willing to take two punches in order to land one because his one is going to do more damage than his opponents two. Kattar defends the takedown very well and if he does get taken down, he’s back up immediately. Those skills will get put to the test against Zabit.
Kattar must keep the fight standing. I think the only way he can win is by stuffing the takedown and landing the bigger punches throughout the fight. Kattar has the edge in cardio so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him clip Zabit late in the fight and get the finish.
I really want to bet Kattar here, but Zabit is the better fighter with more paths to victory.
My official pick: Magomedsharipov by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass, but I think the odds are too wide.
Alexander Volkov (30-7) vs. Greg Hardy (5-1, 1 NC) – Heavyweight 265 lbs.
Current Odds: Volkov -300; Hardy +240
Alexander Volkov was on a six-fight win streak until getting knocked out by Derrick Lewis at UFC 229. It was his first loss under the UFC banner. The former M1 Global heavyweight champion will make the walk for the thirty-eighth time when he steps into the octagon opposite Greg Hardy. Of the thirty-one-year-old’s thirty career victories, twenty-three ended inside the distance. Twenty via knockout and three by submission.
Greg Hardy thought he had won his third fight in a row when he defeated Ben Sosoli via unanimous decision at UFC on ESPN 6. The decision was later overturned to a no-contest after he used an asthma inhaler in between rounds two and three. This will be Hardy’s eighth professional fight. All five of his victories are via knockout.
Volkov is the more technically sound fighter with tons more experience. He’s a good striker who prefers to fight in space. It’s in that space where he likes to fire off his kicks to the legs of his opponents. He’s a high-volume striker who will usually land more than his opponents.
Hardy will be the bigger, stronger more athletic fighter. Volkov has to stay composed, fight smart and avoid getting sucked into a brawl. This is a tough spot for Hardy. Not only is Volkov leaps and bounds better than anyone Hardy has fought before, but he took the fight on short notice and has to travel all the way to Russia for it. His cardio is piss poor to begin with and I don’t see it getting better here. That said, Hardy can end the fight with one punch at any time.
My official pick: Hardy by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass, but I might consider a flyer on Hardy.
Zelim Imadaev (8-1) vs. Danny Roberts (16-5) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Imadaev -230; Roberts +190
After starting his pro career winning his first eight fights in a row, all by knockout, Zelim Imadaev lost his UFC debut to Max Griffin via majority decision at UFC 236. It took nine fights for the twenty-four-year-old to finally go the distance in a fight.
After winning two in a row, Danny Roberts finds himself on the losing end of his previous two. He got subbed by Claudio Henrique da Silva at UFC Fight Night 147 and got knocked out in the first round by Michel Pereira at UFC Fight Night 152. Twelve of the English born fighter’s sixteen career victories ended inside the distance. Seven by knockout to go along with five via submission. He was finished in all five of his losses. This will be the thirty-two-year-old’s twenty-second pro fight.
Imadaev has an unorthodox striking style. He’ll throw punches, kicks and elbows from any angle. He also has huge power as his eight knockouts in eight wins illustrates. However, he does struggle on the ground and has piss poor submission defense.
Roberts has decent striking and enough power to capitalize on a hurt opponent for the finish, but he lacks true one-punch knockout power. I think this fight plays out on the feet which bodes well for Imadaev. Roberts tends to struggle with highly skilled strikers, and I see him struggling here too. He has also taken a lot of damage in the three knockout losses. This is a big fight for Roberts. He needs a win here, but I don’t see it happening.
My official pick: Imadaev by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: I played Zelim Imadaev at -210 in a parlay with Grigory Popov at
-190 on Thursday.
Khadis Ibragimov (8-1) vs. Ed Herman (24-14, 1 NC) – Light Heavyweight 205 lbs.
Current Odds: Antigulov -140; Herman +110
Thirty-nine-year-old, Ed Herman will make the walk for the fortieth time when faces off against Khadis Ibragimov and the twenty-second in the UFC. After losing three in a row, Herman bounced back in his most recent fight with a victory over Patrick Cummins via first round TKO at UFC Fight Night 152. Twenty of the American fighter’s twenty-four career wins ended inside the distance. Seven via knockout to go along with thirteen by way of submission.
Khadis Ibragimov lost his UFC debut to Da Un Jung via submission at UFC Fight Night 157. It was his first loss after starting his pro career 8-0. This will be the twenty-four-year-old’s tenth pro bout. In his eight victories, five ended inside the distance. Two by knockout and three via submission.
Ed Herman has a grinding style, but you’ll never see him shy away from a good old-fashioned slug fest. Considering Ibragimov’s fighting style I can see this fight going in that direction. Ibragimov has power but he’s reckless on the feet. He’s also very hittable.
Ibragimov is just average when it comes to wrestling and takedowns. If the fight does go to the ground, it’ll be because Herman took it there where he knows he has a sizable advantage. Ibragimov will want to stand and trade. Both fighters have questionable gas tanks, but with Ibragimov taking this fight on short notice he might gas out even quicker.
My official pick: Ibragimov by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Ramazan Emeev (18-3) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (16-5) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Emeev -130; Martin +100
Ramazan Emeev is on a modest seven-fight win streak entering his fight against Anthony Rocco Martin. He’s 3-0 under the UFC banner. His most recent victory occurred at UFC Fight Night 136 where he defeated Stefan Sekulic via unanimous decision. Eight of the Russian’s eighteen victories went to the judge’s scorecards. The thirty-two-year-old will make the walk for the twenty-second time.
Anthony Rocco Martin was on a four-fight win streak until losing to Demian Maia via majority decision at UFC on ESPN 3. Ten of his sixteen career wins ended inside the distance. Nine are via submission and only one by knockout. This will be the twenty-nine-year-old’s twenty-second pro bout.
Emeev is the stronger, more physical fighter. He packs a ton of power and constantly marches forward. All his punches are thrown with bad intentions behind them; however, his output is low. It’s not uncommon for him to get out struck by his opponents and against a fighter like Martin, I expect the same to happen to here.
Martin has a solid stand-up game. He mixes up his offense well, especially when it comes to his kicks. He has good footwork which makes him difficult to land flush against. His takedown defense is average at best, but he has good defensive ground skills. I expect Emeev to take Martin down, but I don’t expect him to have much success advancing his position. I think Martin will be the busier fighter on the feet, but Emeev will be the one landing the more damaging punches. This is a step-up in level of competition for Emeev, but I think this fight sets up well for him.
My official pick: Emeev by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Shamil Gamzatov (13-0) vs. Klidson Abreu (15-3) – Light Heavyweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Gamzatov -180; Abreu +150
Shamil Gamzatov is undefeated in thirteen pro fights and makes his UFC debut on Saturday. His most recent victory occurred during Professional Fighters League 6 when he defeated Rex Harris via unanimous decision. Ten of the twenty-nine-year-old’s thirteen wins ended inside the distance. Half of them are via knockout.
After losing his UFC debut to Magomed Ankalaev, Klidson Abreu bounced back by defeating Sam Alvey via unanimous decision at UFC on ESPN 4. All but one of the Brazilian born fighter’s fourteen career wins ended inside the distance. Four via knockout to go along with ten by way of submission. This will be the twenty-six-year-old’s nineteenth professional fight.
Abreu switched to American Top Team for this fight. I’ll be interested to see if he’s made any adjustments. Gamzatov is the more well-rounded fighter and better athlete.
My official pick: Gamzatov by submission.
From a betting perspective: I played Shamil Gamzatov at -190 on Wednesday.
Enjoy the fights!