UFC DC PRELIMS PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS
Updated odds & predictions for every fight on the preliminary card
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship is at the Capital One Arena in Washington DC for UFC on ESPN 7 Saturday night. The main event takes place in the heavyweight division where Alistair Overeem takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The co-main takes place in the women’s strawweight division where Marina Rodriguez goes up against Cynthia Calvillo.
Also, on the main card Stefan Struve and Ben Rothwell face off in a battle of heavyweights. In the women’s bantamweight division Aspen Ladd takes on Yana Kunitskaya and in the bantamweight division Cody Stamann faces Yadong Song.
The early prelims will stream on ESPN+ beginning at 4:30 PM (CST) with the prelims airing on ESPN starting at 6:00 PM (CST). The main card will air on ESPN at 8:00 PM (CST).
Note: The predictions in this column do not necessarily mean that I will be betting them. I have changed my mind in the past and gone the other way after conducting more research. For all my official bets follow me on Twitter @MichaelGrocke.
Prelims
Rob Font (16-4) vs. Ricky Simon (15-2) – Bantamweight 135 lbs.
Current Odds: Font -150; Simon +120
Rob Font is 2-1 over his previous three with wins over Thomas Almeida and Sergio Pettis. The loss was to Raphael Assuncao. Font has eleven finishes in his sixteen career victories. Ricky Simon was on an eight-fight win streak until losing to Urijah Faber in his most recent fight. Seven of his fifteen wins ended inside the distance.
Font is the more technical striker who will typically out-volume his opponents. He has more power and will have the reach advantage. He defends the takedown well and will want to keep the fight standing. Font has fought the better competition and has more UFC experience than Simon, but he hasn’t fought since December of last year. I expect Simon to try and take Font down and control the fight on the mat. If he can’t get the fight to the ground, then I think he’s going to have a hard time competing with Font in a striking affair. Simon’s chin is a concern as well.
My official pick: Font by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Thiago Alves (23-14) vs. Tim Means (28-11-1) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Means -255; Alves +200
Tim Means is 1-3 in his previous four fights. After beating Ricky Rainey, Means lost his most recent fight to Niko Price. The other two losses were to Belal Muhammad and Sergio Moraes. He has twenty-three finishes in twenty-eight career wins. Brazilian fighter Thiago Alves is also 1-3 in his previous four fights. After beating Max Griffin, Alves dropped a unanimous decision to Laureano Starolpoli in his most recent fight. The UFC veteran has fourteen finishes in twenty-three career victories.
Only one year separates the two fighters in age and only by a handful of career fights. Means makes his return after breaking his ankle in a knockout loss to Niko Price at UFC Fight Night 146. It was a fight Means was winning, until he wasn’t. I suspect Alves is going to be more than happy to stand and bang with Means here. Means will enjoy a height and reach advantage and I think he’ll have success in the clinch.
Alves has vicious leg kicks and goes to the body well. However, Thiago Alves has been on the downside of his career for a while now and hasn’t been the same post USADA. This is also the last fight on his contract and I’m not sure where he is mentally. Means length will make it difficult for Alves to get inside. I think Means will have success on the feet, fighting from distance and cruise to a one-sided decision.
My official pick: Means by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Billy Quarantillo (12-2) vs. Jacob Kilburn (8-2) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Current Odds: Quarantillo -330; Kilburn +255
Billy Quarantillo enters the fight on a five-fight win streak. This will be his UFC debut. Quarantillo has finished nine of his twelve career wins. Jacob Kilburn is also making his promotional debut on Saturday night. He’s 2-0 in his previous two with both wins under the Island Fights banner.
Quarantillo is a slow starter. He’s a gritty fighter with a ton of heart. You won’t see Quarantillo quit. Kilburn is a striker with power but he’s prone to gas out. Kilburn does have knockout power and Quarantillo is hittable, so I do give him a punchers chance, but he must get it done in the first round. Quarantillo starts to find his groove midway through the fight and will eventually wear Kilburn down. The odds on this fight are way too wide in my opinion. I expect Quarantillo to pull away late in the fight, but between Kilburn’s power and the fact that Billy is a notorious slow starter a bet on Kilburn makes sense at that price.
My official pick: Quarantillo by decision, but with little confidence.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Bryce Mitchell (11-0) vs. Matt Sayles (8-2) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Current Odds: Sayles -135; Mitchell +105
Twenty-five-year-old Bryce Mitchell is undefeated as a pro. Eight of his eleven victories ended inside the distance, all via submission. He’ll go for his third straight win under the UFC banner on Saturday night. After losing to Sheymon Moraes, Matt Sayles beat Kyle Nelson in his most recent fight. All but one of his eight pro wins ended inside the distance. Both of his losses went to the judge’s scorecards.
This should be a good fight and one I’m looking forward to. Mitchell has decent striking with power. He has good wrestling and an even better takedown game. His cardio is a bit suspect though.
Sayles is a good boxer with power who likes to push a pace. He has good takedown defense, but he tends to give up his back which could play a factor here. This one will come down to which fighter can impose their will on the other. Sayles will want to keep the fight standing while Mitchell wants to get the fight to the ground.
My official pick: Sayles by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Early Prelims
Joe Solecki (8-2) vs. Matt Wiman (16-8) – Lightweight 155 lbs.
Current Odds: Solecki -365; Wiman +290
Thirty-six-year-old Matt Wiman makes the walk for the seventeenth time for the UFC. He’s 1-2 in his last three. He lost his most recent fight to Luis Pena via TKO. Joe Soleci will make his promotional debut on Saturday night. He comes into the fight riding a three-fight win streak with his most recent victory occurring during Season 3 of Dana White’s Contender Series.
Solecki is an average striker at best but his strength lies in his grappling. He’s far from a finished product. After taking five years off, Wiman didn’t look good in his loss to Luis Pena. Wiman is a gritty fighter, but he’s going up against the much younger, fresher, hungrier fighter. I also question the mindset of Wiman. I think he has one foot out the door.
My official pick: Solecki by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Mallory Martin (6-2) vs. Virna Jandiroba (14-1) – Strawweight 115 lbs.
Current Odds: Jandiroba -255; Martin +200
Virna Jandiroba won her first fourteen fights in a row until she lost to Carla Esparza in her UFC debut. The Brazilian born fighter gets another chance to pick up her first win under the UFC banner when she takes on Martin on Saturday night. Mallory Martin replaces Livia Souza to take on former Invicta champion Virna Jandiroba on short notice on Saturday night. This will be Martin’s UFC debut. She enters the fight looking to win her sixth straight fight.
Martin has decent wrestling, but really struggles off her back. That will be a problem against Jandiroba who has legit BJJ skills. Jandiroba should be able to dominate the fight on the ground. This will be a big step-up in level of competition for Martin, add in the short notice and this is should be a clear win for Jandiroba. Possibly inside the distance.
My official pick: Jandiroba by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Makhmud Muradov (23-6) vs. Trevor Smith (15-9) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
Current Odds: Muradov -440; Smith +340
Thirty-eight-year-old Trevor Smith is 1-3 in his previous four and enters this bout the loser of his last two. His most recent loss was to Zak Cummings via unanimous decision. Ten of Smith’s fifteen career wins ended inside the distance. Nine are via submission. After twenty-eight pro fights, Makhmud Muradov finally made his UFC debut in his most recent bout. He made the most of it by defeating Alessio Di Chirico via unanimous decision. The twenty-nine-year-old finished eighteen of his twenty-three career victories.
Trevor Smith is a grinder who will continuously march forward. Muradov is the better fighter, but he doesn’t have the best cardio. He has great footwork and will be looking to land his overhand right. I think he finds Trevor Smith’s depleted chin and gets him out of there within the first two rounds. If Smith can get out of the first round or two, the fight could get interesting. I do however expect Muradov to get the win though.
My official pick: Muradov by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Enjoy the fights!