UFC DC MAIN CARD PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS
Updated odds & predictions for every fight on the main card
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship is at the Capital One Arena in Washington DC for UFC on ESPN 7 Saturday night. The main event takes place in the heavyweight division where Alistair Overeem takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The co-main takes place in the women’s strawweight division where Marina Rodriguez goes up against Cynthia Calvillo. Also, on the main card Stefan Struve and Ben Rothwell face off in a battle of heavyweights. In the women’s bantamweight division Aspen Ladd takes on Yana Kunitskaya and in the bantamweight division Cody Stamann faces Yadong Song.
The early prelims will stream on ESPN+ beginning at 4:30 PM (CST) with the prelims airing on ESPN starting at 6:00 PM (CST). The main card will air on ESPN at 8:00 PM (CST).
Note: The predictions in this column do not necessarily mean that I will be betting them. I have changed my mind in the past and gone the other way after conducting more research. For all my official bets follow me on Twitter @MichaelGrocke.
Main Card
Alistair Overeem (45-17, 1 NC) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-0) – Heavyweight 265 lbs.
Current Odds: Overeem -115; Rozenstruik -115
At thirty-nine-years-old, Alistair Overeem makes the walk for the sixty-fourth time and the seventeenth time in the UFC. His debut fight was back in October of 1999. After losing two fights in a row by knockout, first to Francis Ngannou at UFC 218 and then to Curtis Blaydes at UFC 225, Overeem enters his fight against Rozenstruik on a two-fight win streak. He defeated Sergei Pavlovich at UFC Fight Night 141 and his most recent win was at UFC Fight Night 149 where beat Alexey Oleynik. Both victories were via TKO.
The former Strikeforce heavyweight champion, Dream heavyweight champion and K-1 World Grand Prix champion has yet to acquire UFC gold. The Dutch born fighter has forty finishes in his forty-five career victories. Twenty-three are via knockout and seventeen are by way of submission. He has been finished fourteen times in seventeen losses. Thirteen via knockout.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is undefeated in his first nine professional fights and 3-0 under the UFC banner. He’ll look to make it ten in a row when he steps into the octagon opposite Overeem on Saturday night. His most recent victory occurred at UFC 244 where he knocked out Andrei Arlovski in the first round. Eight of the thirty-one-year-old’s nine victories ended inside the distance, all by knockout with one via decision.
Overeem has done it all and seen it all in his long-storied career. He’s fought the tougher competition. He has tons more MMA experience and is dangerous regardless where the fight goes. Rozenstruik is still an unknown commodity. All we really know about him is he has tremendous power in his hands. We have no idea if he has a ground game, or if he can fight off his back. Up until now, his competition has been the lower half of the heavyweight division. This is a massive step-up in level of competition.
If Overeem was smart, he would take Rozenstruik down and test his ground skills. The big question is, will he use the biggest advantage he has in the fight? I just don’t know. I’m banking on Overeem coming out and showing he still belongs in the top five by trying to trade with Rozenstruik Similar to what he tried to do against Ngannou, and if that happens, I’ll take the younger, faster, fresher fighter who’s taken tons less damage.
By the way, kudos to Overeem for taking fights against these up-and-comers in the division.
My official pick: Rozenstruik by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: I played Jairzinho Rozenstruik at -110 on Sunday, 11/17.
Marina Rodriguez (12-0-1) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (8-1) – Strawweight 115 lbs.
Current Odds: Rodriguez -125; Calvillo -105
Cynthia Calvillo won her first six fights in a row as a pro until finally losing to Carla Esparza via unanimous decision at UFC 219. She bounced back by winning her next two fights. First, she defeated Poliana Botelho by submission at UFC Fight Night 140 and in her most recent fight she beat Cortney Casey via unanimous decision at UFC on ESPN 1. Five of Calvillo’s eight career wins ended inside the distance. Two are by knockout and three are via submission. The thirty-two-year-old will make the walk for the tenth time on Saturday.
Marina Rodriguez has yet to be defeated. After fighting Randa Markos to a majority draw at UFC Fight night 137, Rodriquez is 2-0 in her previous two. She beat Jessica Aguilar at UFC on ESPN 2 and Tecia Torres at UFC Fight Night 156. Both victories were via unanimous decision. Half of the thirty-two-year-old’s twelve victories ended inside the distance. Five by knockout and one via submission. The Brazilian born fighter will make the walk for the fourteenth time when she steps into the octagon opposite Calvillo.
This fight serves as a contender eliminator in the women’s strawweight division. I expect Calvillo to try and get the fight to the ground early and often where she’ll enjoy a big advantage. She can control her opponents on the mat and has an excellent submission game.
Rodriguez will the bigger fighter and she defends the takedown very well. She will be the better fighter on the feet and Calvillo must avoid getting her back pinned against the cage. Rodriguez can do serious damage from the clinch and she also uses her reach to keep distance. Rodriguez has an aggressive style which could play right into Calvillo’s hands. Rodriguez must be careful to not walk into Calvillo’s takedowns.
My official pick: Rodriguez by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Stefan Struve (29-11) vs. Ben Rothwell (36-12) – Heavyweight 265 lbs.
Current Odds: Rothwell -135; Struve +105
Stefan Struve was on a three-fight skid until finally picking up a win in his most recent fight. He defeated Marcos Rogerio de Lima via submission at UFC Fight Night 145. The Lima fight was the last on Struve’s contract. It was thought at the time that Struve was retiring, but after taking time the “Skyscraper” decided to put retirement on hold and face Rothwell in the octagon on Saturday night.
The Dutchman will make the walk for the forty-first time and the twenty-third time for the UFC. The thirty-one-year-old has twenty-six finishes in his twenty-nine career victories. Eight by knockout and twelve via submission. Struve was stopped eight times in eleven losses. Seven via knockout.
After losing to Junior dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 86 back in April of 2016, Ben Rothwell served a two-year suspension from USADA for a failed drug test. Since his return from suspension, Rothwell is 0-2. He dropped a unanimous decision to Blagoy Ivanov at UFC Fight Night 146 and in his most recent fight he lost to Andrei Arlovski at UFC on ESPN 4, also by unanimous decision. All but three of Rothwell’s thirty-six career wins ended inside the distance. Twenty-seven are by knockout to along with six by way of submission. Half of his twelve losses ended inside the distance. The thirty-eight-year-old will make the walk for the forty-ninth time and the thirteenth for the UFC.
This is a tough fight to predict. You just don’t know what you’re going to get with either fighter. Struve will have a height and reach advantage and will want to use his reach and front kicks to keep range. The problem with Struve is he doesn’t use his size to his advantage. However, he has surprisingly good ground skills. I expect Struve to try and pin Rothwell against the cage and trip him to the mat. I think his best path to victory is to get Rothwell down, use his ground and pound and grind Rothwell out.
Rothwell is typically the more aggressive fighter and will try to get inside. Rothwell has no problem with taking one to land one. He has more power than Struve and will eventually find his suspect chin. Struve never lived up to expectations and the fact that he’s flirted with retirement recently makes me hesitant to back him.
My official pick: Rothwell by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass, for now. I like Rothwell, but I’m hoping the odds come down more before making it an official bet.
Aspen Ladd (8-1) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (12-4, 1 NC) – Bantamweight 135 lbs.
Current Odds: Ladd -170; Kunitskaya +140
After winning the first eight fights of her career in a row, Aspen Ladd finally tasted defeat for the first time. Germaine de Randamie finished Ladd by knockout in the first round at UFC Fight Night 155. Fighting out of the MMA Gold Fight Team, Ladd has six finishes in eight career victories. Five by knockout and one via submission. The twenty-four-year-old will make the walk for the tenth time.
After getting finished by Cyborg in the first round at UFC 222, Yana Kunitskaya has won her last two bouts. She defeated Lina Lansberg via unanimous decision at UFC 229 and her most recent win occurred at UFC Fight Night 146 where she beat Marion Reneau also by unanimous decision. Eight of the Russian born fighter’s twelve victories ended inside the distance. Seven by knockout and one by way of submission. At thirty-years-of-age, Kunitskaya will make the walk for the eighteenth time when she steps into the octagon opposite Ladd on Saturday.
Like a lot of wrestlers, Aspen Ladd has fallen in love with her striking. It cost her dearly in her previous fight when she got knocked out by Germaine de Randamie. She needs to go back to taking the fight to the ground, it’s what she does best and what got her to where she’s at. She’s excellent at controlling her opponents on the ground and has vicious ground and pound. Ladd’s weight cut is always a concern and hopefully she’s using the de Randamie fight as a learning experience because Kunitskaya is no joke. She’s the more well-rounded fighter, tough as hell, excellent in the clinch and has the advantage in cardio.
My official pick: Ladd by decision.
From a betting perspective: I played Aspen Ladd at -160 on Saturday, 11/23.
Cody Stamann (18-2) vs. Yadong Song (14-3, 2 NC) – Bantamweight 135 lbs.
Current Odds: Song -205; Stamann +165
Cody Stamann was on a ten-fight win streak until he got subbed by Aljamain Sterling at UFC 228. Stamann bounced back with a victory in his most recent fight by beating Alejandro Perez via unanimous decision at UFC 235. The Michigan Top Team product will make the walk for the twenty-first time on Saturday. Ten of the thirty-year-old’s eighteen career victories went the distance.
Yadong Song enters his fight against Stamann on a seven-fight win streak. His most recent victory was at UFC 239 where he defeated Alejandro Perez via first round knockout. Of the Chinese born fighter’s fourteen wins, eight ended inside the distance. Five by knockout to go along with three via submission. Saturday’s fight will be the twenty-one-year-old’s twentieth pro bout.
Stamann has good wrestling and will have a big advantage on the ground. Song has been working on his takedown defense and I’m sure he knows Stamann will try to take him down. If Song is successful in stuffing the takedown attempts and can force Stamann to stand, I think he’ll be able to piece him up and possibly finish the fight. Stamann is hittable and Song is the more technical striker with more power and speed.
My official pick: Song by knockout.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Enjoy the fights!