UFC 245 PRELIMS PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS
Updated odds & predictions for every fight on the preliminary card
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back home at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 245 on Saturday night. The main event takes place in the welterweight division where Kamaru Usman defends his UFC welterweight championship against Colby Covington, The co-main takes place in the featherweight division where Max Holloway defends his UFC featherweight title against Alexander Volkanovski.
Also, on the main card Amanda Nunes defends her women’s UFC bantamweight championship against Germaine de Randamie. Marlon Moraes welcomes Jose Aldo to the bantamweight division and Peter Yan takes on Urijah Faber also in the bantamweight division.
The early prelims will stream on ESPN+ beginning at 5:30 PM (CST) with the prelims airing on ESPN 2 starting at 7:00 PM (CST). The main card will stream on ESPN+ PPV at 9:00 PM (CST).
Note: The predictions in this column do not necessarily mean that I will be betting them. I have changed my mind in the past and gone the other way after conducting more research. For all my official bets follow me on Twitter @MichaelGrocke.
Prelims
Geoff Neal (12-2) vs. Mike Perry (13-5) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Neal -255; Perry +200
Mike Perry is 2-2 over his last four, alternating wins and losses. He lost his most recent fight to Vicente Luque via split decision. He’s finished eleven of his thirteen career victories, all by (T)KO. After losing to Kevin Holland at Xtreme Knockout 34, Geoff Neal has rattled off six straight wins, the last four in the UFC. Nine of his twelve victories ended inside the distance.
Mike Perry has made noticeable improvements in the cage, but this is a tough match-up for him. Geoff Neal’s speed and accuracy are going to give Perry fits. Neal might have the fastest hands in the division, if not the entire UFC. Perry likes to pressure and put a pace on his opponents, and he’ll have to do that and more against Neal if he’s going to have a shot at winning here.
Perry fares better against fighters that are content to stand and trade with him, so he has to goad Neal into a brawl. Neal won’t do that. He’s too skilled a fighter on the feet. Perry has also taken quite a bit of damage and eventually it’s going to take its toll on him. Perry is durable and tough as hell, so I don’t see him getting finished.
My official pick: Neal by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Ketlen Vieira (10-0) vs. Irene Aldana (11-5) – Bantamweight 135 lbs.
Current Odds: Vieira -170; Aldana +140
Ketlen Vieira is undefeated as a pro fighter with six finishes. Her most recent victory was over Cat Zingano via split decision at UFC 222. After dropping a split decision to Raquel Pennington, Irene Aldana bounced back by winning her most recent fight over Vanessa Melo. The Mexican born fighter has eight finishes in her eleven career victories.
Viera is solid on the feet. She’s aggressive and likes to march forward. She also has excellent takedowns to go with a very good ground game. Aldana is a good striker who likes to out-volume her opponents. She also has good takedown defense, but she hasn’t faced a fighter as good as Viera in that department.
While Viera has the advantage on the ground, I do favor Aldana on the feet. I think her volume will give Viera trouble. I think Ketlen is the better fighter, but she hasn’t fought since March of 2018 due to injury so that gives me pause. She never had the best cardio, so I’ll be interested to see how the layoff affects her.
My official pick: Vieira by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass. I lean to Viera -170.
Ian Heinisch (13-2) vs. Omari Akhmedov (19-4-1) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
Current Odds: Heinisch -150; Akhmedov +120
Ian Heinisch was on a five-fight win streak until losing to Derek Brunson in his most recent fight. Seven of his thirteen career victories went the distance. Omari Akhmedov enters the fight on a four-fight win streak with one draw over his previous five bouts. His most recent victory was over Zak Cummings via unanimous decision.
Heinisch has good wrestling and usually outworks his opponents in scrambles. Akhmedov made the move up to middleweight and has looked good. He also has good wrestling so it will be interesting to see which fighter can take the other one down.
My hunch is the fight plays out on the feet. If that’s the case, then I slightly favor Akhmedov. I think he’s the cleaner striker with more power. Heinisch likes to march forward and walk his opponents down so Akhmedov must be able to maintain range and keep Heinisch on the outside.
This should be a very competitive fight between two fighters with similar styles and skills. This is a dog or pass situation in my opinion.
My official pick: Akhmedov by decision, but with little confidence.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Matt Brown (21-16) vs. Ben Saunders (22-12-2) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Brown -375; Saunders +300
Matt Brown will make the walk for the thirty-eighth time and the twenty-fifth time for the UFC. He finally picked up a win over Diego Sanchez after losing three in a row. All but two of the thirty-eight-year-old’s twenty-one career victories ended inside the distance. Brown has been finished twelve times in sixteen losses. Ten via submission.
Like Matt Brown, Ben Saunders hasn’t fared well in his recent fights. He is 1-5 over his previous six and the loser of his last three in a row. Seventeen of his twenty-two career wins ended inside the distance.
This is an interesting fight. Matt Brown returns after two years off taking on Ben Saunders who probably shouldn’t be fighting anymore. Saunders got finished in each of his previous five losses. Four were via (T)KO and one by submission. His chin is completely shot. Brown’s health is always a concern especially considering Saunders does like to throw kicks to the body of his opponents.
My official pick: Brown by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
The price on Matt Brown is way too high for me; in fact, I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking a shot on Saunders. Fight doesn’t go the distance or under 1.5 rounds may also be worth looking at.
Enjoy the fights!