UFC 245 EARLY PRELIMS PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS
Updated odds & predictions for every fight on the early preliminary card
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The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back home at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 245 on Saturday night. The main event takes place in the welterweight division where Kamaru Usman defends his UFC welterweight championship against Colby Covington, The co-main takes place in the featherweight division where Max Holloway defends his UFC featherweight title against Alexander Volkanovski.
Also, on the main card Amanda Nunes defends her women’s UFC bantamweight championship against Germaine de Randamie. Marlon Moraes welcomes Jose Aldo to the bantamweight division and Peter Yan takes on Urijah Faber also in the bantamweight division.
The early prelims will stream on ESPN+ beginning at 5:30 PM (CST) with the prelims airing on ESPN 2 starting at 7:00 PM (CST). The main card will stream on ESPN+ PPV at 9:00 PM (CST).
Note: The predictions in this column do not necessarily mean that I will be betting them. I have changed my mind in the past and gone the other way after conducting more research. For all my official bets follow me on Twitter @MichaelGrocke.
Early Prelims
Chase Hooper (6-0-1) vs. Daniel Teymur (7-3) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Current Odds: Hooper -120; Teymur -110
Twenty-year-old Chase Hooper has yet to taste defeat as a professional fighter. Four of his six wins ended inside the distance. Hooper’s fight against Teymur will be his promotional debut. Daniel Teymur went 6-0 on the regional scene when he got the call from the UFC. He lost his first three fights in a row in the UFC until finally getting his first win over Sung Bin Jo.
Hooper is tall and lanky with an awkward style. He has good scrambles and is excellent on the ground. Once on the ground, he’ll immediately look for submissions whether from his back or from top control. Teymur will have the edge on the feet, but he struggles on the ground. Both fighters have clear paths to victory. Teymur wants to keep the fight standing while Hopper wants to take the fight to the ground.
I expect Teymur to come out fast and try to get Hooper out of there early. If he doesn’t get the finish in the first round, he’s in trouble. Teymur has poor cardio so if Hooper survives the first round, I expect him to take control of the fight.
My official pick: Hooper by submission.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Brandon Moreno (15-5-1) vs. Kai Kara-France (20-7, 1 NC) – Flyweight 125 lbs.
Current Odds: France -165; Moreno +135
Brandon Moreno is 1-2 with one draw over his last four fights. The twenty-five-year-old Mexican born fighter has finished twelve of his fifteen career wins. Kai Kara-France comes into the fight the winner of his last eight in a row, and he’s 3-0 in the UFC. The New Zealand product has twelve finishes in twenty career victories.
Moreno is a very good grappler and will want to get the fight to the ground early and often. His striking is only average, and he is hittable. Kara-France will have the advantage on the feet. He’s by far the better striker, but he’s not a pressure fighter and that’s what usually gives Moreno problems. Kara-France is more of a counter-striker. He’s very accurate and does possess power in his hands. He’s solid on the ground, but he’s going to want to avoid going to the ground against Moreno. This fight will come down to which fighter can implement their game plan over the other.
My official pick: Kara-France by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Jessica Eye (14-7, 1 NC) vs. Viviane Araujo (8-1) – Flyweight 125 lbs.
Current Odds: Araujo -180; Eye +150
Jessica Eye was on a three-fight winning streak until she lost her most recent fight to Valentina Shevchenko via a brutal head kick knockout. Ten of her fourteen wins went to the judge’s scorecards. Brazilian born fighter Viviane Araujo enters the fight on a modest five-fight win streak. She is 2-0 under the UFC banner and finished all but one of her eight career victories.
Araujo is very good on the feet. She has speed, power and has excellent footwork. She can defend against the takedown and is a solid grappler. She is a well-rounded fighter, but her constant movement tends to tire her out and force her to take periods of time off during rounds.
Jessica Eye will be a step-up in level of competition. Eye is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Valentina Shevchenko. She’s a decent striker who can also rely on her grappling. I also think she has better cardio than Araujo.
While the cardio is a concern, Eye only has four finishes in fourteen victories. The last time she won inside the distance was back in 2014, so even if Araujo tires, I don’t see Jessica being able to finish her.
My official pick: Araujo by decision.
From a betting perspective: I played Viviane Araujo at -150 on Saturday, 11/23.
Punahele Soriano (6-0) vs. Oskar Piechota (11-2-1) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
Current Odds: Piechota -125; Soriano -105
Undefeated Punahele Soriano makes his UFC debut on Saturday night. Five of the Hawaiian born fighter’s six wins ended inside the distance. Three by (T)KO to along with two via submission. Oskar Piechota enters the fight on a two-fight losing streak. Both losses were via submission. All but one of the Polish born fighter’s eleven victories ended inside the distance.
Piechota is a good grappler. His stand-up is average at best, but he does have power. He tends to gas as the fight goes on. In six career fights Soriano has only been out of the first round once, and that was in his most recent fight. He’s a bit of an unknown at this point and is making his debut. He has fought solid competition outside the UFC though.
Piechota has the experience and better resume. He might be fighting to keep his spot in the promotion as well.
My official pick: Piechota by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Enjoy the fights!