BELLATOR LONDON: MVP VS. MELILLO PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS
Updated odds & predictions for every fight
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Bellator MMA travels across the pond to the SSE Arena in Wembley, London, England. The main event takes place in the welterweight division where Michael “Venom” Page goes up against Giovanni Melillo.
The co-main takes place in the middleweight division where Fabian Edwards takes on Michael Shipman. The main card also includes Terry Brazier taking on Soren Bak in a battle of lightweights.
The prelims will stream on DAZN and the Bellator mobile app at 10:30 AM (CST). The main card will stream on DAZN and the Bellator app starting at 4:00 PM (CST).
Note: The predictions in this column do not necessarily mean that I will be betting them. I have changed my mind in the past and gone the other way after conducting more research. For all my official bets follow me on Twitter @MichaelGrocke.
Main Card
Michael Page (15-1) vs. Giovanni Melillo (13-4) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Current Odds: Page -1320; Melillo +820
After winning his first fourteen fights in a row, Michael Page finally suffered the first loss of his career when Douglass Lima knocked him out cold in the second round at Bellator 221. He bounced back with a victory in his most recent fight when he defeated Richard Kiely at Bellator 227 via knockout. The English born fighter has finished twelve of his fifteen pro wins. Nine are via knockout to go along with three by way of submission. The thirty-two-year-old will make the walk for the seventeenth time on Saturday.
Italy’s Giovanni Melillo is 1-2 over his previous three bouts. His most recent fight was at Fight Clubbing 24 where he beat Will Chope via unanimous decision. Saturday’s bout against Page will be Melillo’s Bellator debut. Ten of his thirteen victories ended inside the distance. Eight are by knockout and two via submission. He was knocked out in all four of his career losses. This will be the thirty-four-year-old’s eighteenth professional fight.
I expect Melillo to come out swinging. He has power so he’s either going to catch Page with a big shot or he’s getting his lights turned out in the first round.
My official pick: Page by (T)KO.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Fabian Edwards (8-0) vs. Michael Shipman (13-2) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
Current Odds: Edwards -345; Shipman +275
Fabian Edwards has yet to taste defeat. His most recent victory occurred at Bellator 223 where he beat Jonathan Bosuku via unanimous decision. Four of his wins were under the BAMMA promotion and the other four under the Bellator banner. Six of the English born fighter’s eight wins ended inside the distance. Three by knockout and three via submission. The twenty-six-year-old makes the walk for the ninth time.
Michael Shipman lost his pro debut fight to Aaron Brett back in June of 2013. Since that loss, he has won thirteen in a row until he lost for the second time in his most recent fight at Bellator 223. He got finished by Costello van Steenis in the second round due to punches. He is 2-1 since coming to Bellator. All thirteen of the Englishman’s victories ended inside the distance. Eight via knockout with five by submission. He was knocked out in both of his losses. This will be Shipman’s sixteenth pro bout.
Shipman is no joke. He hits hard so Edwards must respect his punching power on the feet. That said, Edwards is the better fighter and should get he win. The odds are a little too wide for me to back Edwards though.
My official pick: Edwards by decision.
From a betting perspective: Pass.
Terry Brazier (11-2) vs. Soren Bak (12-1) – Lightweight 155 lbs.
Current Odds: Bak -135; Brazier +115
England’s Terry Brazier was on a nine-fight win streak until he got subbed by Chris Bungard at Bellator Newcatle, which was also his Bellator debut. He bounced back with a win in his most recent fight by defeating Alessandro Botti via submission at Bellator 223. Seven of Brazier’s eleven victories ended inside the distance. Four via knockout and three by submission. This will be his fourteenth pro bout.
Denmark’s Soren Bak enters the fight riding a modest five-fight win streak. His most recent win was at Cage Warriors 103 where he defeated Morgan Charriere via majority decision. This will be the twenty-seven-year-old’s Bellator debut. Bak has finished eight of his twelve victories. Two are by knockout and six via submission. He’ll make the walk for the fourteenth time on Saturday.
Bak is a gritty, grind it out type of fighter. He has excellent grappling and slick submissions. However, he struggles on the feet. He’s an average at best striker with poor technique. Brazier is also good on the ground. He’s not at Bak’s level, but he can handle himself should the fight go to the ground. That said, Brazier has a huge advantage in the stand-up. He has more power; better technique and he fights well off his back foot.
I like Brazier here, but we lost a lot of value. He’s down to +120 which makes me more apt to pass on the fight. I’m going to keep an eye on the odds as we get closer to the fight and hope we start to see money come back in on Bak.
My official pick: Brazier by (TKO).
From a betting perspective: Pass as of right now.
Prelims Quick Picks
Pietro Penini (8-1-1, 1 NC defeats Charlie Ward (7-3) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
Denise Kielholtz (3-2) defeats Sabriye Sengul (0-0) – Flyweight 125 lbs.
Andy Manzolo (22-6) defeats Kent Kauppinen (11-5) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
George Tokkos (3-0) defeats Kevin Fryer (7-3) – Middleweight 185 lbs.
Tim Wilde (12-4) defeats Charlie Leary (16-10-1) – Lightweight 155 lbs.
Damian Frankiewicz (7-2) defeats Aiden Lee (7-4) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Sam Sicilia (16-10) defeats Robert Whiteford (15-4) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Alfie Davis (12-3) defeats Alessandro Botti (15-10) – Catchweight 161 lbs.
Walter Gahadza (18-4) defeats Lewis Long (16-5) – Welterweight 170 lbs.
Tim Barnett (7-3-1) defeats Akonne Wanliss (3-1) - Lightweight 155 lbs.
Raphael Uchegbu (1-0) defeats Shane Campbell (0-0) – Bantamweight 135 lbs.
Chris Bungard (14-5) defeats Benjamin Brander (11-6) – Lightweight 155 lbs.
Nathan Rose (7-2) defeats Harry Hardwick (3-2) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Tom Mearns (6-2) defeats Jeremy Petley (12-8-1) – Catchweight 150 lbs.
Josie Blaber (1-0) defeats Charlotte McIntyre (0-0) – Featherweight 145 lbs.
Enjoy the fights!